University of Toronto study shows a nearly $1 million productivity boost for some manufacturers' predictive analytics investments

The predictive analytics industry is slated to earn more than $273 billion in 2022. Yet, despite the hype over big data and the forecasting power of tools such as statistical modeling and machine learning, not all firms that sink money into them reap benefits, prompting a research team to probe what makes the difference. Kristina McElheran is an assistant Professor of Strategic Management at the University of Toronto, Scarborough and Rotman School of Management. Her research centres on the use of information technology and data by firms, with an emphasis on strategy, organizational design, and process innovation. Her current focus is on data-driven decision making and how firms and individuals can use data to improve their performance. She is also actively investigating the economic and strategic impacts of Cloud Computing. Her experience includes six years on faculty at the Harvard Business School. She is a Faculty Affiliate at UofT’s Schwartz Reisman Institute for Technology and Society; Digital Fellow at the Digital Economy Lab, Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI; Visiting Researcher at Harvard Law School on AI, Robotics, and the Future of Work; Fellow at Boston University’s Technology and Policy Research Initiative; and Digital Fellow at MIT’s Initiative on the Digital Economy. Prior to her academic career, she worked for two early-stage technology ventures in Silicon Valley. She currently serves as a Lab Economist at the Creative Destruction Lab, one of Toronto’s premier seed-stage programs for technology startups.

They found that significant and complementary investments in IT capital, an educated workforce, and high-efficiency manufacturing processes were “indispensable” to getting the most out of predictive tools that help firms optimize their performance. Among the 30,000 manufacturers surveyed in the 2015 study, companies with predictive analytics averaged about a $500,000 to $1 million revenue increase. Firms that did not make at least one of these, mutually-reinforcing investments, however, saw little to no benefit. 

“These complements provide the organizational infrastructure to collect, analyze, and respond to predictions based on objective data,” explains Kristina McElheran, an assistant professor of strategic management at the University of Toronto Scarborough and UofT’s Rotman School of Management.  

“IT capital captures investments in data collection and computer hardware that can transmit, store, and analyze data, for example. Educated workers are known to be an essential ingredient for that system. And certain production environments provide richer data due to the processes they use.” 

Prof. McElheran and her co-authors worked with the U.S. Census Bureau to create a survey that was returned by a highly-representative sample of U.S. manufacturing plants for the two survey years, 2010 and 2015. The survey asked about manufacturers’ use of predictive analytics, management practices, availability and use of data in decision-making, and design of their production processes. Results were cross-linked with related data such as company production inputs and outputs. Manufacturers were targeted because they tend to be early innovation adopters. More than three-quarters of responding plants had adopted some form of predictive analytics by 2010, researchers found, although most firms used the tools only annually or monthly. Higher intensity of use was associated with greater productivity gains. 

Government requirements for collecting environmental and safety data also helped to “nudge” some firms into adopting predictive analytics by pushing them to implement necessary infrastructure and train workers to use it. Companies nudged in this way ultimately displayed stronger performance in the researchers’ findings. 

It’s no secret in the management world that IT investments realize better returns when supported by educated workers, and vice versa. What the research shows is that some firms have not yet made that connection in the context of predictive analytics, says Prof. McElheran. 

“We found it puzzling,” she says. “More research is needed to understand the organizational or market frictions that are causing this apparent misalignment, one that is proving to be quite costly in the firms we observe.” 

This is the first study to examine the impact of predictive technologies on productivity in a large sample. The paper was co-written with Erik Brynjolfsson, of Stanford University and Wang Jin at the MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy. 

Massachusetts General Hospital uses deep learning models to identify people at risk of thoracic aortic aneurysm

The results could also lead to new strategies to prevent and treat enlarged aortas.

An abnormally enlarged aorta—also called aortic aneurysm—can tear or rupture and cause sudden cardiac death. Unfortunately, patients often show no signs or symptoms before the aorta, which carries blood from the heart to the rest of the body, fails. A team led by investigators at Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) recently used a type of artificial intelligence called deep learning to uncover insights into the genetic basis for variation in the aorta’s size. In addition to identifying at-risk individuals, the findings may point to new preventive and therapeutic targets.

The research relied on data from the UK Biobank, a study that performed multiple magnetic resonance imaging tests of the heart and aorta in more than 40,000 people. “There were no aortic measurements provided by the UK Biobank, and we wanted to read the aortic diameter in all of the images collected,” explains lead author James Pirruccello, MD, a cardiologist at MGH and an instructor in medicine at Harvard Medical School. “That is very hard for a human to do because it would take a long time, which motivated our use of deep learning models to do this process at a large scale.”

The researchers trained deep learning models to evaluate the dimensions of the ascending and descending sections of the aorta in 4.6 million cardiac images. They then analyzed the study participants’ genes to identify variations in 82 genetic regions (or loci) linked to the diameter of the ascending aorta and 47 linked to the diameter of the descending aorta. Some of the loci were near genes with known associations with aortic disease.

“When we added up the genetic variants into what’s called a polygenic score, people with a higher score were more likely to be diagnosed with aortic aneurysm by a doctor,” says Pirruccello. “This suggests that, after further development and testing, such a score might one day be useful to help us identify people at high risk of an aneurysm. The genetic loci that we discovered also offer a useful starting point for trying to identify new drug targets for aortic enlargement.”

Pirruccello adds that the findings also provide supportive evidence that deep learning and other machine learning methods can help accelerate scientific analyses of complex biomedical data such as imaging results.

This work was supported by Leducq, the National Institutes of Health, the American Heart Association, the John S. LaDue Memorial Fellowship, a Sarnoff Cardiovascular Research Foundation Scholar Award, the Burroughs Wellcome Fund, the Fredman Fellowship for Aortic Disease, the Toomey Fund for Aortic Dissection Research, Bayer AG, and the Susan Eid Tumor Heterogeneity Initiative.

Vanderbilt engineer Kolouri wins $1M DARPA grant to investigate AI cooperative lifelong learning

A Vanderbilt engineering professor is leading part of an international initiative to create advanced artificial intelligence programs that will enable machines to learn progressively over a lifetime and share those experiences. Researchers hope the technology will allow machines to reuse information, adapt quickly to new conditions, and collaborate by sharing information. Soheil Kolouri

Soheil Kolouri, assistant professor of computer science, in partnership with Hamed Pirsiavash, associate professor of computer science at the University of California, Davis, will lead a research team focusing on continual machine learning mechanisms.

The prototype project, “Information Distillation for Embodied and Articulate Lifelong Learners,” or IDEALL, has received a $1M award from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency as part of the agency’s Shared-Experience Lifelong Learning (ShELL) initiative. DARPA wants to develop AI agents that share their experiences and is seeking innovative basic or applied research concepts in lifelong learning.

In addition to leading IDEALL, Kolouri’s team has partnered with Andrea Soltoggio, associate professor of computer science, University of Loughborough, UK, to develop a theoretical framework that allows AI agents to measure tasks’ similarities and continually learn by analogies. Cong Liu, associate professor of computer science at, University of Texas, Dallas, is a member of the Loughborough team.  

The Vanderbilt-UC, Davis team will concentrate on the algorithmic theory and statistical foundation of the learning mechanisms. The UK team will focus on novel bio-inspired neural networks that learn shareable knowledge exploiting neuromodulation and synaptic consolidation mechanisms, and the Texas researchers will focus on the hardware integration and deployment for potential transition to industrial and real-world applications.

The real-world uses of this new technology could include cooperating self-learning autonomous vehicles such as self-driving cars, robotic rescue and exploration systems, distributed monitoring systems to detect emergencies, or cyber security systems of agents that monitor large networks.

Lifelong Learning is a relatively new area of machine learning research in which agents continually learn as they encounter varying conditions and tasks while deployed in the field, acquiring experience and knowledge and improving performance on both novel and previous tasks. This differs from the train-then-deploy process for typical ML systems.

LL is an emerging area of machine learning that differs from the traditional train and then deploy process. In LL, an AI agent must continually learn from the input data stream while preserving and improving its previously acquired knowledge.

“Lifelong learning from the never-ending stream of everchanging data is the key to scaling up AI systems,” said Kolouri. “One of the major roadblocks in achieving LL is the so-called plasticity-stability trade-off, where plasticity refers to the ability to learn from new data, and stability refers to retaining the previously learned knowledge.” A team of undergraduate and graduate students at the Machine Intelligence and Neural Technologies (MINT) Lab directed by Kolouri, in collaboration with computer science associate professor Vladimir Braverman’s group at Johns Hopkins University, is currently studying this phenomenon.

“Today we know the importance of social interactions in the evolution of human intelligence. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) could not be realized with a single AI agent. Similar to the cognitive revolution in sapiens, a transition is needed from our current single-agent LL to articulate LL machines that can encode information about their surroundings into a compact compositional language and use it for machine-to-machine communication and, maybe more importantly, for thinking, which is a form of self-communication!” said Kolouri. “The ShELL program aims to develop such communicative LL agents that continually learn from their collective experiences.”

“We are very excited to be part of this fast-paced, innovative program and look forward to transitioning our developed tools into medical applications,” Kolouri said.

German scientists pave the way for superconducting spintronic apps where quantum coherence protects spin polarized current flow

Superconducting coupling between two regions separated by a one-micron wide ferromagnetic compound has been proved by an international team. This macroscopic quantum effect, known as Josephson effect, generates an electrical current within the ferromagnetic compound made of superconducting Cooper-pairs. Magnetic imaging of the ferromagnetic region at BESSY II has contributed to demonstrating that the spin of the electrons forming the Cooper pairs is equal. These results pave the way for low-power consumption superconducting spintronic-applications where spin-polarized currents can be protected by quantum coherence. Device where the long range Josephson coupling has been demonstrated.  Superconducting YBa2Cu3O7 regions (yellow) are separated by a half-metal La2/3Sr1/3MnO3 ferromagnet (green).

When two superconducting regions are separated by a strip of non-superconducting material, a special quantum effect can occur, coupling both regions: The Josephson effect. If the spacer material is a half-metal ferromagnet novel implications for spintronic applications arise. An international team has now for the first time designed a material system that exhibits an unusually long-range Josephson effect: Here, regions of superconducting YBa2Cu3O7 are separated by a region of half-metallic, ferromagnetic manganite (La2/3Sr1/3MnO3) one micron wide.

With the help of magneto-transport measurements, the researchers were able to demonstrate the presence of a supercurrent circulating through the manganite – this supercurrent is arising from the superconducting coupling between both superconducting regions, and thus a manifestation of a Josephson effect with a macroscopic long range.

Extremely rare: Triplett superconductivity

In addition, the scientists explored another interesting property with profound consequences for spintronic applications. In superconductors electrons pair together in so-called Cooper pairs. In the vast majority of superconducting materials, these pairs are composed of electrons with opposite spins to minimize the magnetic exchange field which is detrimental for the stabilization of superconductivity. The ferromagnet used by the international team has been a half-ferromagnet for which only one spin-type electron is allowed to circulate. The fact that a supercurrent has been detected within this material, implies that the Cooper pairs of this supercurrent must be composed of electrons having the same spin. This so-called “triplet” superconductivity is extremely rare.

Mapping magnetic domains at BESSY II

"At the XMCD-PEEM station at BESSY II, we mapped and measured the magnetic domains within the manganite spacer. We observed wide regions homogeneously magnetized and connecting the superconducting regions. Triplet spin pairs can propagate freely in these,” explains Dr. Sergio Valencia Molina, HZB physicist, who supervised the measurements at BESSY II. 

Superconducting currents flow without resistance which makes them very appealing for low-power consumption applications. In the present case, this current is made of electrons with equal spins. Such spin-polarized currents could be used in novel superconducting spintronic applications for the transport (over long distances) and reading/writing of information while profiting from the stability imposed by the macroscopic quantum coherence of the Josephson effect.

The new device made of the superconducting and ferromagnetic components, therefore, opens up opportunities for superconducting spintronics and new perspectives for quantum supercomputing.

Scientists use ASU built supercomputer models to solve a part of the mystery of ultra-rare blood clots linked to adenovirus-based COVID-19 vaccines

An international team of scientists believes they may have found a molecular mechanism behind the extremely rare blood clots linked to adenovirus COVID-19 vaccines.

Scientists led by a team from Arizona State University, Cardiff University, and others worked with AstraZeneca to investigate vaccine-induced immune thrombotic thrombocytopenia (VITT), also known as thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS), a life-threatening condition seen in a very small number of people after receiving the Oxford-AstraZeneca or Johnson & Johnson vaccines. 

“The mechanism which results in this condition, termed vaccine-induced immune thrombotic thrombocytopenia (VITT), was unknown,” said Abhishek Singharoy, an Arizona State University scientist and corresponding author of the study who teamed up to lead an international effort to tease out the details. So, a team quickly assembled to try to understand the problem more clearly. This supercomputer simulation shows a cloud of platelet factor 4 proteins interacting with the electrostatic surface of the Oxford vaccine.  CREDIT Chun Kit Chan, Arizona State University

Together, they worked to solve the structural biology of the vaccine and see the molecular details that may be at play, utilizing ASU’s new cryo-EM facilities, and a state-of-the-art Titan Krios machine at ASU’s Eyring Materials Center at Arizona State University.

ASU scientists included several from the School of Molecular Sciences and Biodesign Institute: Ryan J. Boyd, Daipayan Sarkar, John Vant, Eric Wilson, Chloe D. Truong, Petra Fromme, Po-Lin Chiu, Dewight Williams, and Josh Vermaas (ASU alumnus now at Michigan State University). Mitesh Borad, Bolni M. Nagalo, and Alexander T. Baker were also part of the Arizona-based team.

The global team used state-of-the-art cryo-EM technology to analyze the AstraZeneca vaccine in minute detail to understand whether the ultra-rare side effect could be linked to the viral vector which is used in many vaccines, including those from Oxford/AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson.

Their findings suggest it is the viral vector – in this case, an adenovirus used to shuttle the coronavirus’ genetic material into cells – and the way it binds to platelet factor 4 (PF4) once injected that could be the potential mechanism.

In very rare cases, the scientists suggest, the viral vector may enter the bloodstream and bind to PF4, where the immune system then views this complex as foreign. They believe this misplaced immunity could result in the release of antibodies against PF4, which bind to and activate platelets, causing them to cluster together and triggering blood clots in a very small number of people after the vaccine is administered.

“It’s really critical to fully investigate the vector-host interactions of the vaccine at a mechanistic level,” said Singharoy. “This will assist in understanding both how the vaccine generates immunity, and how it may lead to any rare adverse events, such as VITT.”

Their findings are published today in the international journal Science Advances.

Professor Alan Parker, an expert in the use of adenoviruses for medical applications from Cardiff University’s School of Medicine, said: “VITT only happens in extremely rare cases because a chain of complex events needs to take place to trigger this ultra-rare side effect. Our data confirms PF4 can bind to adenoviruses, an important step in unraveling the mechanism underlying VITT. Establishing a mechanism could help to prevent and treat this disorder.”

“We hope our findings can be used to better understand the rare side effects of these new vaccines – and potentially to design new and improved vaccines to turn the tide on this global pandemic.”

Both the AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson vaccines use an adenovirus to carry spike proteins from the coronavirus into people to trigger a protective immune response.

When both vaccines showed the ultra-rare side effect of VITT, scientists wondered whether the viral vector had some part to play. Another important clue was that neither the Moderna nor Pfizer vaccines, made from an entirely different technology called mRNA vaccines, showed this effect.

The team used cryo-EM technology to flash-freeze preparations of ChAdOx1, the adenovirus used in the AstraZeneca vaccine, and bombard them with electrons to produce microscopic images of the vaccine components.

They were then able to look at the atomic level at the structure of the outer protein cage of the virus – the viral capsid – and other critical proteins that allow entry of the virus into the cell.

In particular, the team outlined the details for the structure and receptor of ChAdOx1, which is adapted from chimpanzee adenovirus Y25 – and how it interacts with PF4. They believe it is this specific interaction – and how it is then presented to the immune system – that could prompt the body’s defenses to view it as foreign and release antibodies against this self-protein.

The research team also used the computational models of Singharoy to show that one of the ways the two molecules tightly bind is via electrostatic interactions. The group showed that ChAdOx1 is mostly electronegative. This makes the protein act like the negative end of a battery terminal and could attract other positively charged molecules to its surface.

The first author of the study Dr. Alexander Baker, said: “We found that ChAdOx1 has a strong negative charge. This means the viral vector can act as a magnet and attract proteins with the opposite, positive charge, like PF4.” Baker is a member of ASU’s Biodesign Center for Applied Structural Discovery and an Honorary Research Fellow at Cardiff University School of Medicine.

“We then found that PF4 is just the right size and shape that when it gets close to ChAdOx1 it could bind in between the negatively charged parts of ChAdOx1’s surface, called hexons.”

The research team is hopeful that armed with a better understanding of what may be causing rare VITT they can provide further insights into how vaccines and other therapies, which rely on the same technology, might be altered in the development of the next-generation vaccines and therapies.

“With a better understanding of the mechanism by which PF4 and adenoviruses interact there is an opportunity to engineer the shell of the vaccine, the capsid, to prevent this interaction with PF4. Modifying ChAdOx1 to reduce the negative charge may reduce the chance of causing thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome,” said Baker.

The team likens it to the two birds, one stone effect. The key contacts of individual amino acids that are essential to the capsid protein’s proteins interaction with PF4 can be removed or substituted.

“The modification of the ChAdOx1 hexons to reduce their electronegativity may solve two problems simultaneously: reduce the propensity to cause VITT to even lower levels, and reduce the levels of pre-existing immunity, thus helping to maximize the opportunity to induce robust immune responses, said Singharoy.”

Both the UK-based Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in the U.S. continue to advise that vaccination is the best way to protect people from COVID-19 and the benefits far outweigh the risk of any known side effects.