The strong El Niño predicted for 2023-2024 is expected to have serious climate consequences. The ensemble-mean Niño3.4 index forecasts made by IAP ENSO EPS between Oct. 2022 and Aug. 2023 (indicated by solid color lines) show the expected Niño3.4 index values, while the shaded area represents the range of forecasted values starting from Aug. 2023. The observed Niño3.4 index values from Aug. 2022 to Jul. 2023 are represented by a black solid line. The annual time series of GMST anomalies during 1950-2022 (datasets: BEST, GISTEMP v4) are shown in panel B, with orange and red bars indicating the first and second years of nine strong El Niño events, respectively. Panel C shows the statistically forecasted probability of GMSTs to be 1st to 3rd in 2023 and 2024. Panels D and E show the distribution of STAs in the first and second years of strong El Niño composited by the nine events in B. Finally, panel F shows the annual time series of OHC0-2000m during 2005-2022 (represented by blue dots), the corresponding linear trend (represented by a gray dashed line), and the estimated OHC0-2000m in 2023-2024 (represented by red and orange bars) based on linear regression methods with a 90% confidence interval.
The strong El Niño predicted for 2023-2024 is expected to have serious climate consequences. The ensemble-mean Niño3.4 index forecasts made by IAP ENSO EPS between Oct. 2022 and Aug. 2023 (indicated by solid color lines) show the expected Niño3.4 index values, while the shaded area represents the range of forecasted values starting from Aug. 2023. The observed Niño3.4 index values from Aug. 2022 to Jul. 2023 are represented by a black solid line. The annual time series of GMST anomalies during 1950-2022 (datasets: BEST, GISTEMP v4) are shown in panel B, with orange and red bars indicating the first and second years of nine strong El Niño events, respectively. Panel C shows the statistically forecasted probability of GMSTs to be 1st to 3rd in 2023 and 2024. Panels D and E show the distribution of STAs in the first and second years of strong El Niño composited by the nine events in B. Finally, panel F shows the annual time series of OHC0-2000m during 2005-2022 (represented by blue dots), the corresponding linear trend (represented by a gray dashed line), and the estimated OHC0-2000m in 2023-2024 (represented by red and orange bars) based on linear regression methods with a 90% confidence interval.

The effects of an unprecedented El Niño on climate change in China

Researchers from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences have predicted that a strong El Niño event will cause global surface temperature to rise and trigger several climate crises in 2023–2024. The El Niño event is known for releasing massive heat into the atmosphere, which will change atmospheric circulation patterns, influence tropical-extratropical interactions, and impact subtropical jets, monsoons, and even polar vortices, resulting in a rapid surge in Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST).

GMST, which integrates global land surface temperature and sea surface temperature, is one of the vital indicators of climate variability and global warming. Its interannual variability is primarily dominated by ENSO events, with El Niño events having a particularly strong influence due to their capacity to release immense heat into the atmosphere, leading to anomalies in atmospheric circulation and changes in the surface energy balance.

The IAP team's ensemble prediction system indicated earlier in 2023 that there would be an El Niño event in boreal autumn, which may be maintained throughout winter. Based on historical climate data and prior studies, the IAP team revealed the potential extent and consequences of the extreme warming expected in 2023–2024. Their findings indicate a 17% probability that the 2023 GMST will become the highest recorded since 1950 and a staggering 61% probability that it will rank among the top three. In 2024, these probabilities suddenly rise to 56% and 79%, respectively.

During the development of a strong El Niño in 2023, warm anomalies are expected to predominantly affect the tropical central-eastern Pacific, the Eurasian continent, and Alaska. However, in the following year, 2024, warm anomalies are likely to encompass the entire continents, significantly increasing the chance of land-based heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires.

According to Prof. Zheng Fei, corresponding author of the study, "In addition to the surge in surface temperatures, the strong El Niño in 2023-2024 is predicted to trigger a cascade of climate crises."

There are several climate issues that we are currently facing, such as intensifying marine heat waves, ocean deoxygenation, reduced oceanic diversity, damage to marine ecosystems, rising sea levels, and decreasing crop yields. Additionally, China may encounter several climate anomalies during this period. For example, the suppressed winter monsoon in 2023 might result in higher winter temperatures in most regions of China, which could also increase the risk of air pollution. In 2024, northern China may face spring drought, while southern regions will most likely experience extreme rainfall and flooding during the summer season.

To summarize, the strong El Niño that is expected to happen in 2023-2024 will likely cause global surface temperatures to break records and trigger climate crises all over the world. This emphasizes the urgency of taking action to mitigate the consequences of climate change and reduce the risk of further environmental damage.

Assuming that the black hole's spin axis is aligned vertically, the jet's direction is nearly perpendicular to the disk. The misalignment between the black hole spin axis and the disk rotation axis results in the precession of both the disk and jet.
Assuming that the black hole's spin axis is aligned vertically, the jet's direction is nearly perpendicular to the disk. The misalignment between the black hole spin axis and the disk rotation axis results in the precession of both the disk and jet.

China confirms black hole spin by monitoring radio galaxy M87

An international team of researchers, led by Chinese researcher Dr. CUI Yuzhu, has discovered that the black hole at the center of the nearby radio galaxy M87, which is located 55 million light-years from Earth and is 6.5 billion times more massive than the Sun, exhibits an oscillating jet that swings up and down with an amplitude of about 10 degrees. This confirms the black hole's spin.

The team used a global network of radio telescopes and analyzed telescope data from 2000 to 2022. Through this extensive analysis, they revealed a recurring 11-year cycle in the precessional motion of the jet base, as predicted by Einstein's General Theory of Relativity. This study offers evidence that M87's black hole spins and links the dynamics of the jet with the central supermassive black hole.

Supermassive black holes at the center of active galaxies are known to be the most disruptive celestial objects in our universe. Due to their extraordinary gravitational force and power of plasma outflows, they can accrete tremendous amounts of material. These outflows, known as jets, approach the speed of light and extend thousands of light-years away.

For over a century, physicists and astronomers have been trying to understand how energy is transferred between supermassive black holes, their accretion disks, and relativistic jets. The most widely accepted theory suggests that a spinning black hole can extract energy, which can then be used to eject some of the material surrounding the black hole with tremendous force. However, despite being a crucial factor in this process, the spin of supermassive black holes, which is the most fundamental parameter other than black hole mass, has never been directly observed.

In this study, the research team focused on M87, which is known for having the first observational astrophysical jet that was ever observed in 1918. The jet formation regions that are close to the black hole can be analyzed in detail with Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) because of their proximity. Recent black hole shadow imaging with the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) has further allowed researchers to study M87 in detail. By analyzing VLBI data from M87 that was collected over the last 23 years, the team was able to detect the periodic precessional jet at the base of the black hole, which provided insight into the status of the central black hole.

At the heart of this discovery lies a critical question: What force in the universe can alter the direction of such a powerful jet? The answer could be hidden in the behavior of the accretion disk, a structure related to the central supermassive black hole. As materials fall towards the black hole, they form a disk-like structure due to their angular momentum before spiraling inwards and being inevitably drawn into the black hole. However, if the black hole is spinning, it exerts a significant impact on surrounding spacetime, causing nearby objects to be dragged along its axis of rotation, a phenomenon known as "frame-dragging" that was predicted by Einstein's General Theory of Relativity.

The research team's analysis indicates that the rotational axis of the accretion disk does not align with the black hole's spin axis, leading to a precessional jet. Detecting this precession provides unequivocal evidence that the supermassive black hole in M87 is indeed spinning, thus enhancing our understanding of the nature of supermassive black holes.

"We are thrilled by this significant finding," said CUI Yuzhu, a postdoctoral researcher at Zhejiang Lab, a research institution in Hangzhou, and lead and corresponding author of the paper. "Since the misalignment between the black hole and the disk is relatively small and the precession period is around 11 years, accumulating high-resolution data tracing M87's structure over two decades and thorough analysis are essential to obtain this achievement."

"After the success of black hole imaging in this galaxy with the EHT, whether this black hole is spinning or not has been a central concern among scientists," added Dr. Kazuhiro Hada from the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan. "Now anticipation has turned into certainty. This monster black hole is indeed spinning."

The work involved a total of 170 observation epochs, conducted by various radio telescopes across the world, including the East Asian VLBI Network (EAVN), the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA), the joint array of KVN and VERA (KaVA), and the East Asia to Italy Nearly Global (EATING) network. Among these, China's Tianma 65-meter radio telescope and Xinjiang 26-meter radio telescope played a crucial role in achieving the high sensitivity and angular resolution required for the project. The data obtained from over 20 telescopes provided valuable insights for the study.

"The in-building Shigatse 40-meter radio telescope by Shanghai Astronomical Observatory will further improve the imaging capability of EAVN at millimeters. Especially, the Tibetan Plateau, where the telescope is located, owns one of the most excellent site conditions for (sub-)millimeter wavelength observations. It fulfills our expectations to promote domestic sub-millimeter facilities for astronomical observations," said Prof. SHEN Zhiqiang, Director of the Shanghai Astronomical Observatory of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

This study provides insights into the enigmatic realm of supermassive black holes, but it comes with its own set of challenges. The exact spin of the M87 supermassive black hole and the structure of its accretion disk remain uncertain. Furthermore, this research predicts that there could be more sources with similar characteristics, which presents a challenge for scientists to discover them.

Recently, China confirmed the existence of a supermassive black hole at the center of radio galaxy M87 and provided evidence of its rapid spin. This discovery has implications for our understanding of how galaxies are formed and evolved. It also highlights the importance of international collaboration in advancing scientific knowledge. As we further explore the mysteries of the universe, this discovery reminds us of the power of human ingenuity and the potential of science to unlock the secrets of the cosmos.

Chemists from Russia use machine learning, molecular modeling to discover the next generation of anti-cancer drugs

Chemists from RUDN University, located in Moscow, along with their colleagues in China, have successfully developed several machine-learning models to identify potential drugs that can restrict the activity of an enzyme, Cyclin-dependent kinase 2 (CDK 2), which is responsible for uncontrolled cell division. Although CDK 2 is not necessary for healthy cells, it plays a crucial role in the uncontrolled growth of cancer cells. Inhibiting the activity of CDK 2 can restrain tumor growth, making it crucial to find effective CDK 2 inhibitors. The chemists from RUDN University and their colleagues in China used a combination of machine learning and molecular modeling techniques to identify several potential inhibitors.

"Cyclin-dependent kinase 2 is a promising target for cancer treatment. The development of its inhibitors is important in antitumor therapy. The participation of this enzyme in tumor formation remains incompletely studied, but it is already clear that its inhibition is useful in the treatment of cancer. Several inhibitors have already undergone clinical trials, but a selective inhibitor specifically for this enzyme has not yet been found," said Alexander Novikov, Ph.D. in Chemistry, senior researcher at the Joint Institute of Chemical Research of RUDN University.

Chemists utilized machine learning methods to identify a potential candidate drug. The authors of the study developed multiple models to find active inhibitors of CDK 2. Additionally, they built a molecular model using the molecular docking method, which can identify the most favorable molecular orientation for forming a stable complex.

Using machine learning models, the team identified 25 potential active CDK 2 inhibitors with an accuracy of 98%. Chemists then tested each of the identified inhibitors using molecular docking. Out of the 25, three substances proved to work better than the rest. For the top three, a computer simulation was created using the molecular dynamics method and compared with the reference compound, dalpiciclib. The results showed that all three of the chosen inhibitors were more stable and more compact than the reference compound.

"Compared to the control drug dalpiciclib, the three calculated compounds showed more stable behavior and compactness. Despite the promising results, our study has several limitations. We need in-depth clinical trials in vitro and in vivo to confirm inhibitory activity and potential therapeutic efficacy. In addition, when developing drugs, it will be necessary to study the effect of compounds on off-target interactions and their toxicity," Alexander Novikov, Ph.D. in Chemistry, senior researcher at the Joint Institute of Chemical Research of RUDN University.

The research concludes that Russian chemists have utilized machine learning and molecular modeling effectively to detect new potential anticancer drugs. This is a significant breakthrough in cancer research that could save countless lives by leading to the development of new treatments. The research also exemplifies the power of combining modern technology with traditional scientific methods, demonstrating the potential of machine learning and molecular modeling to revolutionize the field of medicine.

Illustration of the structure of the nanozymes obtained, with details on how the tyrosine amino acids (in red) coordinate the metal ions (in orange).
Illustration of the structure of the nanozymes obtained, with details on how the tyrosine amino acids (in red) coordinate the metal ions (in orange).

Unlock the full potential of CO2 capture with minimal molecules, the revolutionary solution to creating a greener future

Researchers at the Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona (UAB) have developed enzymes capable of capturing carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted in industrial processes and other environmental remediation processes. These enzymes are based on artificial molecular structures formed by peptides of only seven amino acids. The new molecules can also act as metalloenzymes, which opens up new possibilities in biotechnology research. Furthermore, the study provides a new contribution to the origin of catalytic activity at the beginning of life.

The study was coordinated by Salvador Ventura, and Susanna Navarro was the first author. Both are researchers at the Institute of Biotechnology and Biomedicine and the UAB Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology. They collaborated with researchers from the UAB Department of Chemistry and the Research Centre bioGUNE.

In the study, the researchers used a combination of experiments and simulations, including spectrophotometry, fluorescence, electron microscopy, electron diffraction, and supercomputational modeling.

In 2018, researchers at UAB successfully created short molecules that can self-assemble. These molecules were inspired by the natural ability of amyloid fibrils to self-assemble and were based on a specific sequencing of prion proteins. These artificial amyloids demonstrate catalytic activities and have several advantages over natural enzymes, including modularity, flexibility, stability, and ease of use. Recently, researchers discovered that these molecules can effectively bind to metal ions and act as storage elements for metal and metalloenzymes.

“These peptides were particular, since they did not contain the typical amino acids, such as histidine, which is often considered essential for the coordination of metal ions in enzymes, and which were thought to be essential for catalytic activity. In contrast, they were enriched with residues from tyrosine, an element which although less known in this context, can also have the unique capacity of binding to metal ions if it finds itself in the correct structural context. Tyrosine’s ability to do so is what we used to create our nanozymes,” Salvador Ventura points out.

The results of the study have wide-ranging applications. Firstly, nanozymes exhibit excellent stability and can be employed for environmental remediation purposes, including wastewater treatment and decontamination of soils, due to their remarkable ability to sequester metal ions. Secondly, they can act as metalloenzymes, catalyzing reactions in conditions where current enzymes would be incapable of functioning due to their instability. This creates exciting new possibilities for biotechnology research, such as catalyzing reactions in extreme temperatures and pH values.

Researchers have developed a minimalistic variant of a carbonic anhydrase enzyme that can efficiently store CO2 emitted by greenhouse gases. They are convinced that their enzyme is highly capable and can be produced at a much lower cost than natural enzymes.

Researchers have developed new nanozymes by exploring the catalytic activity of short, low-complexity peptides that self-assemble into structures similar to amyloids. This hypothesis suggests that such structures acted as the primal ancestral enzymes, playing a vital role in the origin of life.

“Showing that these molecules have catalytic action without the need for conventional histidine-based coordination represents a significant change in how we understand the origin of catalytic activity at the start of life. We now know that this activity can be achieved if the ancestral peptides contain tyrosine. Therefore, we suggest that it is highly probable that the ancestral enzymes based on amyloids also used this second amino acid in their chemical reactions,” Salvador Ventura concludes.

The potential of minimal molecules in capturing CO2 is a promising development in the battle against climate change. By leveraging the unique properties of these molecules, we can create cost-effective solutions to reduce CO2 emissions and safeguard our planet. With further research and development, minimal molecules can become a potent tool in combating global warming and the consequences of climate change. With the appropriate resources and commitment, we can build a greener, cleaner, and more sustainable future for generations to come.

Herbivorous parrotfish feeding in the shallows on Palmyra Atoll Credit: Brian Zgliczynski
Herbivorous parrotfish feeding in the shallows on Palmyra Atoll Credit: Brian Zgliczynski

Researchers in Bangor show how human activities are contributing to the destruction of communities of reef fish

A recent study has provided evidence that supports one of the ecological theories developed in the 1950s and 1960s. This theory has been used to predict how different species are distributed in various environments. The study raises questions about whether these models need to be updated to account for the impact of humans on natural systems. The coral reef zonation theory is one of the earliest examples of these models, and it explains how different types of fish and corals are found at different depths in coral reefs. The accuracy of these theories has been previously tested on a small scale, and they have proven to be reliable across a wide range of variables such as food supply and temperature.

Modern supercomputing capabilities now allow testing theories at larger scales.

Scientists from Bangor University and the US Government National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), led by Dr. Laura Richardson, validated the depth zonation model on coral reefs. They collected data from 5525 surveys at 35 Pacific Ocean islands to determine the distribution of different fish species according to depth. The results showed that the model is accurate but only on uninhabited islands where there is no human interference.

However, the pattern was not as clear and predictable on islands and reefs with human habitation. The findings suggest that traditional models of the natural world may no longer be valid due to increasing human impact.

Dr. Laura Richardson of Bangor University’s School of Ocean Sciences, the lead author of the study, suggests that we need to revise our understanding of the natural world in light of these findings.

“Science is cumulative, building on past work. Now that we have greater computing capabilities, we should be testing these widely accepted but spatially under-validated theories at scale. Moreover, the intervening years have seen human impacts on the environment increase to such an extent that these models may no longer predict the ecological distribution patterns we see today.

“This leads to more questions, both about the usefulness of models which represented a world less impacted by human activity, and about how to quantify or model our impact on the natural environment.”

“The results show that now is the time to consider whether and how to include human impacts into our understanding of the natural world today,” said Dr. Richardson.

The study concludes that human activities at a local level are significantly and adversely affecting the depth-dependent zonation of tropical reef fish communities. This has resulted in a decline in the abundance and diversity of fish species, leading to an overall decline in the health of the reef ecosystem. This trend is worrying and emphasizes the need for increased conservation measures to safeguard these delicate ecosystems.