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Tyler O'Neal, Staff Editor ACADEMIA November 17, 2021, 8:00 am

CMCC Foundation explores the ML potential for climate change risk assessment

Large amounts of data and new methods and technologies with which to analyze them. The new frontier of machine learning, a branch of artificial intelligence, at the service of climate studies, in research by the CMCC Foundation and Ca’ Foscari University of Venice

Global warming is exacerbating weather and climate extreme events. The interaction between different forms of hazards triggered by climate change will cause future cross-sectoral impacts affecting a variety of natural and human systems.

Research can improve the understanding of these interactions and dynamics, support decision-makers in managing current and future climate change risks, also thanks to an improved ability to predict expected risks and quantify their impacts.

To this end, in recent years, the scientific community has started testing new methodological approaches, technologies, and tools, among which the application of machine learning, which can help exploit the potential of large amounts and variety of environmental monitoring data available today (big data).

What are the results of the exponential increase in the application of machine learning methods for the assessment of climate-induced risks?

In the study “Exploring machine learning potential for climate change risk assessment“, a team of scientists from the CMCC Foundation and Ca’ Foscari University of Venice conducted an in-depth review of more than 1,200 articles on the subject, published in the last 20 years, highlighting the potential and limitations of machine learning in this field.

“Machine learning is a branch of artificial intelligence,” explains Federica Zennaro, a researcher at the CMCC Foundation and Ca’ Foscari University Venice and the main author of the study. “By simulating the processes of the human brain, certain mathematical algorithms can understand the relationships between a set of input data in order to predict the required output. In our research, we identified that floods and landslides are the most analyzed events through machine learning models, probably because they are the most relevant and frequent around the world.”

Moreover, the study reveals that machine learning has two major potentials that make it particularly interesting when applied to this field of study.

The first is that said algorithms can learn from data: the more data, the better algorithms learn. Thanks to its ability to analyze and process large amounts of data, machine learning allows researchers to disentangle complex relationships underlying the functioning of socio-ecological systems, exploiting the big data collected from various sources, including sensors for environmental analysis at high temporal frequency, social media, satellite data and images, and drones.

The second is that they can combine different types of data, thus enabling an assessment of the risk extent whilst taking into account all its dimensions. These include not only the triggering hazard (for example, an increase in rainfall) but also the vulnerability and exposure of the socio-economic system at stake, which are crucial factors in an evaluation of overall impacts

“For example, consider a model that is trained with detailed data on flood events over the past 20 years, including their location and information on the affected context (urban or natural). This model can project, in a scenario characterized by future climate conditions, what the probability of an event happening at a certain point will be, and calculate its risk of causing harmful impacts to society and the environment,” Zennaro explains. “Machine learning represents the future of risk assessment, but its great potential is not yet widely exploited. Our research shows that there are still few studies that use these models to develop long-term future risk scenarios (up to 2100). The vast majority of studies focus on the short term, probably influenced by the reduced availability of extended time series data capable of supporting adequate model training for long-term projections.”

The next step, explains the co-author Elisa Furlan, a researcher at the CMCC Foundation and Ca’Foscari University Venice, is to develop machine learning models that are increasingly efficient at studying and untangling the complex spatiotemporal interrelationships among different climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic variables, thereby improving understanding of the behavior of complex systems. “Under the perspective of a rising abundance of data and machine learning models’ complexity, researchers will have the possibility (and duty) to improve the understanding of climate-related risks, with the main aim of providing accurate and sound multi-risk scenarios able to drive robust adaptation planning and disaster risk reduction and management”.

UK review of academic studies finds AI could help clinicians with mechanical ventilation

Tyler O'Neal, Staff Editor ACADEMIA November 10, 2021, 9:40 am

Artificial intelligence could be used in the future to help guide when to use mechanical ventilation and the likelihood of complications in the ventilation of patients. This is according to the first systematic review of studies in this area, led by clinicians at Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust.

The review found 1,342 papers on AI and mechanical ventilation and looked in detail at 95 of these. They found that many were looking at the early testing of AI technology and models. One was already at the next stage of clinical trials in patients, with many technologies on the cusp of this step.

The team of academics at Guy’s and St Thomas’ and King’s College London made recommendations for further transparency, to help avoid bias and to facilitate rapid developments in this field. {module title="INSIDE STORY"} 

Artificial intelligence shows great promise in guiding treatment in many diseases. Its ability to analyze large amounts of data could help clinicians in their decision-making by calculating complex probabilities which might take clinicians a lot of time and experience.

Mechanical ventilation in particular is considered an area where AI could help, as patients put on mechanical ventilation can vary hugely, and AI may help to personalize approaches to an individual’s characteristics. They may also be used to flag to a clinician exactly when a person should be taken off or put on to ventilation.

Of the 1,342 papers found in this area, the team looked in detail at 95 particularly relevant studies, where information specifically on AI applied to mechanical ventilation in humans was presented. They made recommendations for researchers to improve work in this field. These included improving the availability of data. They also recommended better reporting of characteristics like ethnicity and gender, to help scientists assess how well findings can be generalized across wider populations.

Dr. Luigi Camporota, consultant in intensive care medicine at Guy’s and St Thomas’ said: “Our systematic review of the literature revealed an exponential increase in the rate of publications on artificial intelligence as applied to mechanical ventilation in the past few years. Despite this increased scientific and clinical interest, artificial intelligence is still very little used in mechanical ventilators.”

Dr. Jack Gallifant, from the Centre for Human and Applied Physiological Sciences at King’s College London, said: “Artificial intelligence has the potential to improve the management of mechanical ventilation therapy. Our review highlights a need for greater code and data availability, and thorough validation that, combined with smaller bias, will facilitate translation of data science into improved patient care.”

Waterloo built AI brings the capability of natural language processing to African languages

Tyler O'Neal, Staff Editor ACADEMIA November 9, 2021, 10:02 am

Researchers have developed an AI model to help computers work more efficiently with a wider variety of languages. 

African languages have received little attention from computer scientists, so few natural language processing capabilities have been available to large swaths of the continent. The new language model, developed by researchers at the University of Waterloo’s David R. Cheriton School of Computer Science, begins to fill that gap by enabling computers to analyze text in African languages for many useful tasks.

The new neural network model, which the researchers have dubbed AfriBERTa, uses deep-learning techniques to achieve state-of-the-art results for low-resource languages. Getty Images

The neural language model works specifically with 11 African languages, such as Amharic, Hausa, and Swahili, spoken collectively by more than 400 million people. It achieves output quality comparable to the best existing models despite learning from just one gigabyte of text, while other models require thousands of times more data.

“Pretrained language models have transformed the way computers process and analyze textual data for tasks ranging from machine translation to question answering,” said Kelechi Ogueji, a master’s student in computer science at Waterloo. “Sadly, African languages have received little attention from the research community.”

“One of the challenges is that neural networks are bewilderingly text- and computer-intensive to build. And unlike English, which has enormous quantities of available text, most of the 7,000 or so languages spoken worldwide can be characterized as low-resource, in that there is a lack of data available to feed data-hungry neural networks.”

Most of these models work using a technique known as pretraining. To accomplish this, the researcher presented the model with text where some of the words had been covered up or masked. The model then had to guess the masked words. By repeating this process, many billions of times, the model learns the statistical associations between words, which mimics human knowledge of the language.

“Being able to pretrain models that are just as accurate for certain downstream tasks, but using vastly smaller amounts of data has many advantages,” said Jimmy Lin, the Cheriton Chair in Computer Science and Ogueji’s advisor. “Needing less data to train the language model means that less computation is required and consequently lower carbon emissions associated with operating massive data centers. Smaller datasets also make data curation more practical, which is one approach to reduce the biases present in the models.”

“This work takes a small but important step to bringing natural language processing capabilities to more than 1.3 billion people on the African continent.”

Assisting Ogueji and Lin in this research is Yuxin Zhu, who recently completed an undergraduate degree in computer science at Waterloo. Together, they present their research paper, Small data? No problem! Exploring the viability of pretrained multilingual language models for low-resource languages, at the Multilingual Representation Learning Workshop at the 2021 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing.

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