Established in 1988, the NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory is a relative newcomer to the NOAA Research network of laboratories. FSL’s mission is to transfer technology and research findings in the atmospheric, oceanic and hydrologic sciences to NOAA operations and other federal organizations, industry and virtually any users of environmental information. The laboratory does this by anticipating the science and technology that will be needed in the nation’s operational weather services in the next five to 15 years. More than ever, the importance of FSL’s endeavors have been dictated by the rapid pace of technological change and the need for sound science to support more advanced services. Located at the NOAA campus in Boulder, Colo., FSL employs 219 experienced, talented people — 90 of whom are with federal service, 57 with a commercial affiliate, 56 with two Joint Institutes and 16 visiting scientists. The work at FSL has practical implications for everyone and contributes directly to NOAA’s mandate to promote public safety and economic efficiency through better weather prediction and warning services.
Major FSL Activities
The research and technology activities at FSL cover four major themes: 1) bringing new atmospheric observing systems to maturity, 2) assimilation and modeling to improve short-range weather predictions, 3) investigating computer architectures as a vehicle for handling the huge computational demands of environmental models and 4) developing environmental information systems for a variety of customers both within and outside of NOAA. Strong leadership, teamwork and quality products are the attributes that have earned FSL international recognition as NOAA’s premier technology transfer laboratory. In its short tenure, FSL has produced a long list of accomplishments. Some of its more recent successes are described below.
Observing Systems
* FSL spearheaded efforts to make wind profiling and ground-based GPS moisture observations a staple in regional prediction. The NOAA Profiler Network, provides reliable hourly observations of winds from the surface to the lower stratosphere, revealing details not available from other observing systems. Through the NPN and other networks, FSL gathers atmospheric observations from numerous sources to complement local forecasting and regional modeling. As a result, the number of “Cooperative Agency Profilers,” most of which sample the boundary layer (interacting with the Earth’s surface), has grown to more than 70; ground-based GPS sites estimating total column water vapor now exceed 250 and 5,000 new surface mesonet observations have been added to the FSL hourly collection. FSL scientists quality control these datasets and forward them to the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction for use in operational forecast models. NPN profiler information was used by NASA in determining the times and horizontal/vertical positions of the falling fragments of Space Shuttle Columbia earlier this year.
* The FSL Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System provides quality-controlled observations and data access software to university and government data assimilation researchers. MADIS data are included in the AWS WeatherNet network, a public-private partnership that will bolster the government’s ability to respond to a Homeland Security event.
* The FSL Rapid Update Cycle Surface Assimilation System provides analysis of surface conditions and gives crucial indicators of the potential for severe weather. These very high-resolution observing systems, along with new-generation models, can greatly improve short-range forecasts of high impact weather, such as severe convective storms and heavy snow/ice storms that effect surface and air travel.
Model Development and Improvement
* FSL’s major research interests center around short-range numerical weather prediction and its applications to daily commerce. For example, the development of FSL's 20-km Rapid Update Cycle, one of NOAA’s operational NWP models, was a multiyear development project that has set the stage for assimilation of new satellite and radar datasets in the future. A 10-km version of the RUC was run in real time to support NOAA’s Temperature and Air Quality Project in New England. The experimental version of the RUC is used in an FSL collaboration with the Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory to develop improved wind energy potential guidance.
* FSL is collaborating on a multiagency Developmental Test Center in Boulder, Colo., to focus on the development of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, designed as both an operational model and a research vehicle for the larger modeling community.
* FSL’s Local Analysis and Prediction System has been deployed to provide higher resolution analyses and forecasts of all weather variables to support space-vehicle launches and routine space operations at Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg Air Force Bases. LAPS runs onsite, in conjunction with the Range Standardization and Automation weather support system, and utilizes a cluster of 16 IBM processors to perform parallel calculations.
* FSL supports the U.S. Forest Service with high-resolution graphic and point-specific products specially configured to provide fire officials with a variety of information, including as fire indices and ventilation potential. Forecasters use the LAPS/MM5 wind and temperature fields in combination with the Blue Sky Smoke Dispersion Model to monitor transport of smoke from active fires, and consult a Web display configured by FSL that ensures rapid, far-reaching distribution of these products.
* The LAPS analysis was also specially configured for a laptop computer to provide in-flight wind profiles to improve the accuracy of cargo drops for the U.S. Army, as part of its Wind-profile Precision Airdrop System.
* In collaboration with the NOAA Ocean Service and the NOAA National Weather Service, FSL set up a demonstration system to bring onsite analysis and modeling to the Jacksonville, Fla., Warning and Forecast Office. This system includes real-time analysis of local data using LAPS and forecasts provided with the new WRF model. These forecasts include wind fields that drive estuarine water flow models, as well as precipitation, temperature and moisture information to help resolve local environmental problems.
Computer Architecture Investigations
* As a leader in high-performance computing, FSL provides essential infrastructure for weather and other environmental research, and for testing future observing systems through repeated model simulations that require extraordinary processing power. FSL's High-Performance Computing System comprises 768 nodes with dual Intel Pentium processors rated at 2.2 GHz. An upgrade in November 2002 merited a ranking of number eight on the Top 500 List of the World’s Fastest Computers. FSL provides computational capability for numerous environmental modeling efforts that are carried out by FSL and non-FSL researchers, NCEP, several NOAA laboratories and numerous joint institutes. FSL’s Advanced Computing Branch enables advancements in atmospheric and oceanic sciences by making high-performance computers easier to use (i.e., through development of the Scalable Modeling System) and by exploiting the advanced capacities of high-speed networks and Web technologies.
Environmental Information Systems
* More timely and accurate warnings and forecasts require continued improvements to the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System, the backbone of the modernized NOAA Weather Service. Technology from FSL laid the foundation on which AWIPS was built. This important role has morphed into further development, integration and testing of new AWIPS systems and subsystems. For example, capitalizing on major development work at FSL, the NWS is deploying Linux PC-based workstations at each weather forecast office in the United States to improve responsiveness of warning decision tools, and acquisition and processing of higher resolution radar and satellite data.
* FSL developed the FX-Net workstation as a low-cost AWIPS data system that can deliver large products through the use of wavelet compression techniques. This is the workstation of choice at NWS for Incident Meteorologists at the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise, Idaho, and at 11 geographic area coordination centers in the United States. Meteorologists used FX-Net last summer to predict the behavior of wildfires and mitigate their effects during an unprecedented drought. FX-Net also ensured that all forecasters had access to the same weather information for the events at the 2002 Winter Olympics. The FX-Collaborate is an exploratory development to support operations at NWS, NASA and the U.S. Air Force. This technology makes it possible for multiple users to view and interact with the same meteorological display. It allows weather forecast coordination between remote offices, classroom training, remote briefings and field experiments. Among other applications, emergency managers are evaluating FXC for remote weather briefings at the Atlanta River Forecast Center, and for coordination of volcanic ash dispersion in Alaska.
* FSL has placed the Graphical Forecast Editor in operations at NWS forecast offices. GFESuite captures the weather forecast in digital form, and is the basis of the National Digital Forecast Database. This allows automatic generation of text, graphics and image products, resulting in higher quality, more consistent and more timely forecasts.
* In collaboration with the Federal Highway Administration and other organizations, FSL has been providing meteorological fields from an ensemble of mesoscale models. The complex weather information that goes into this maintenance decision support system, allows for the processing of clear decisions regarding a number of transportation issues, including snowplow deployment, chemical application and threatened locations.
* FSL has partnered in the development of the Aviation Digital Data Service, now implemented at the NOAA Aviation Weather Center to provide pilots with current preflight planning information on the status of the national airspace. Prototypes of two other aviation products are being implemented: the Tactical Convective Hazard Product has been installed at the Ft. Worth, Texas, Traffic Management Unit for evaluation, and an initial version of the Volcanic Ash Coordination Tool has been installed at the Alaska Aviation Weather Unit, the Anchorage Center Weather Service Unit and the Alaska Volcano Observatory. Likewise, FSL’s Real-Time Verification System, celebrated by the Federal Aviation Administration, recently provided statistics on the quality of the Current Icing Potential product over Alaska for a decision-making committee. All of these products and services improve public safety, emergency operations and ground/air transportation.
Another new project at FSL, Science On a SphereTM, responds to NOAA’s goals to educate present and future generations about the changing Earth and its processes. This system presents NOAA’s global science in an exciting way — through a 3-D representation of our planet as if the viewer were looking at the Earth from outer space. It has received major exposure with hundreds of students and parents, the NOAA Science Center, and meetings of the American Meteorological Society and the National Cable and Telecommunication Association. NOAA’s Science On a SphereTM is a powerful, revolutionary system for educating the public on the holistic nature of Earth’s oceans, atmosphere, biology and land.
Organization
FSL’s research and systems development activities are carried out by six divisions, all of which are supported by the Information and Technology Services under the Office of the Director. ITS is responsible for managing the computers, communications and data networks and associated peripherals used by FSL staff. The first-class central facility contains a wide variety of meteorological data-ingest interfaces, storage devices, local- and wide-area networks, communications links to external networks and display devices. It comprises dozens of computers ranging from workstations and servers to a supercomputer manufactured by High Performance Technologies, Inc. FSL’s recently upgraded High-Performance Computer Center serves government, academia and the private sector.
* FSL's Forecast Research Division is home to most of the research in FSL on numerical weather prediction and small-scale weather phenomena. Scientists develop high-resolution numerical models, such as RUC and WRF, to support the NWS and the aviation community with accurate short-range forecasts based on the latest observations. Dynamical studies of mesoscale processes include analysis of turbulence measurements from special field observations, and the analysis of data from field studies — such as the International H2O Project (IHOP-2002) to improve the understanding of the mesoscale variability of water vapor and apply this knowledge to improving the prediction of warm-season precipitation events. Research-quality datasets are developed to improve mesoscale analysis, data assimilation methods and numerical weather prediction systems.
* FSL's Demonstration Division evaluates promising atmospheric observing technologies developed by NOAA and other federal organizations and determines their value in operational settings. A major project spanning longer than a decade is the operation, maintenance and improvement of the NOAA Profiler Network of 35 profilers. Operated from the FSL Profiler Control Center, these unattended profilers provide reliable hourly observations of winds from the surface to the lower stratosphere, temperatures in the lower atmosphere and water vapor. Likewise, the GPS-Met Observing Systems work under this division includes the creation and dissemination of reliable assessments of the weather, space environment and seasonal and longer term climate forecasts.
* FSL's Systems Development Division performs exploratory development of advanced system concepts and technology for meteorological workstations and systems architectures, interactive 3-D data visualization and graphic tool display systems. It works closely with other FSL groups in transferring these important developments into operations. These systems are used by NWS, the U.S. Air Force and several foreign weather agencies.
* FSL's Aviation Division promotes safer skies by developing and delivering the best aviation products available to air route traffic controllers, dispatchers and pilots in easily understood formats. It provides improved weather forecasting, product visualization and verification capabilities to civilian and military forecasters and emergency managers. It collaborates closely with the FAA, Department of Defense and the Department of Transportation. Collaborative projects include rapid prototyping and implementation of a variety of products and services related to all aspects of aviation.
* FSL's Modernization Division specifies requirements for advanced meteorological workstations, product and technique development and new forecast preparation concepts and techniques. It manages the development and fielding of advanced prototype meteorological systems into the operational NWS forecast offices, and performs objective evaluations of these operational systems. It plays a major role in the development and operational use of AWIPS at more than 100 NWS forecast offices. It provides management and direction for research in the latest scientific and technical advances, emphasizing their potential application to operational meteorology.
* FSL's Technology Outreach Division develops opportunities and provides guidance to other FSL divisions in the promotion of emerging FSL technologies that are valuable to NOAA and other government agencies, organizations and the private sector. Close ties are maintained with other FSL divisions in exploring technology transfer candidates that will be beneficial and sustainable to FSL’s mission and its customers’ needs. Another very important effort involves overseeing internal development of systems intended primarily for global application. These projects allow forecasting agencies in other countries to benefit from needed technical and scientific assistance, and NOAA FSL to benefit from a broadened perspective on forecasting in diverse meteorological environments.
The Future
As a government laboratory engaged in challenging environmental goals that affect all citizens, FSL will continue working toward a better world by following through on the four major themes of concentration mentioned earlier. Its research and technology transfer of products and services will continue to support NOAA’s response to society’s increasing need for accurate weather and climate information to diminish the harsh impacts of droughts, flooding and other environmental threats.
